摘要
针对工程项目投资中采用现有的方法估算不可预见费存在的不足,以超高压基建工程为例,构建了不可预见费估算理论模型,分析了超高压基建工程实施过程中存在的风险,并对各风险进行分类筛选,进而确定风险等级,再利用模糊专家系统估算工程的不可预见费。算例应用结果表明,基于风险分析和模糊专家系统来估算超高压基建工程不可预见费用的方法可行、有效,且估算误差均在10%以内。
Aiming at the deficiency of contingency cost estimation of proiect investment with current method, contin gency cost estimation model is established by taking EHV infrastructure project for an example. The risks that may exist in the implementation process of EHV infrastructure projects are analyzed and classified. And then, fuzzy expert system is used to estimate the contingency cost of EHV infrastructure project. Example results show that the proposed model is feasible and effective for eslimating contingency cost of EHV infrastructure project and the estimation error is within 10%.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2013年第1期184-187,共4页
Water Resources and Power
