黄河下游洪灾风险的定量分析与计算

Quantitative Analysis and Computation on Flood Risk of the Lower Yellow River Floodplain

在综合分析国内外洪灾风险表述方式的基础上,明确了洪灾风险的概念为不同强度洪水发生的几率及其可能造成的洪灾损失。洪灾风险的定量分析方法主要包括基于洪灾损失分布和基于历史灾情数据两种计算方法,以黄河下游滩区为例,分别采用两种方法定量分析了洪灾风险,结果表明:滩区洪灾风险值为36.63亿元,受灾率为27.31%,该结果与当前黄河下游滩区的实际情况相符。

Based on the comprehensive analysis of flood risk explanations,it was defined that the flood risk was the occurrence probability and the relevant losses of the different floods.Two mainly quantitative analysis methods were the method on the basis of flood losses distribution,and method on the basis of historical disaster data.These two methods had different applicability.Taking the lower Yellow River flood plain as an example,two methods were used to quantitatively analyze the flood risk,and the calculated results were matched with the actual situation.