南水北调丹江口水库外迁移民安置风险评估

Risk Assessment of Resettlement in Danjiangkou Reservoir for South to North Water Diversion Project

通过对南水北调中线工程丹江口水库农村外迁移民在安置地的问卷调查,依据世界银行的移民贫困风险和重建模型,逐项评估移民安置的八大类风险,并得到综合风险程度。结果表明:丹江口水库外迁移民安置总的风险度不高,安置情况总体良好,其中丧失土地、失去房屋、发病率和死亡率提高、失去享有公共财产和服务的权利、社区解体等单项风险都较小,但失业风险较大,边缘化与生活缺乏保障风险中等。可通过加强移民后期扶持等来降低风险,更好地实现移民可持续发展与社会稳定。

Through the questionnaire investigation on rural migrants of Danjiangkou Reservoir of South to North Water Diversion Project,this paper based on the model of migrants＇ poverty risk and reconstruction of the World Bank to assessed eight kinds of risks item by item and got comprehensive risk degree.The results show that the total risk degree of resettlement of Danjiangkou Reservoir is not high and the placement is generally good.The individual risk of losing land and homes,increase of morbidity and mortality,losing public property and service right,and community collapse are all smaller,but the risk of unemployment is bigger,the risk of marginalization and lacking of livelihood security are medium.We can strengthen later stage support and so on to reduce risk for promoting sustainable development of migrants and social stability.