三峡地区农业经济监测原理与方法研究

MONITORING PRINCIPLE AND METHODS FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY IN THE AREA OF THREE GORGES

提出经济系统扰动监测原理，认为受扰动X作用的系统S的特征指标（监测指标）O的变化量ΔO分为由系统S自身发展引起的变化量ΔO\-s和由扰动X的作用引起的变化量ΔO\-x，即ΔO=ΔO\-s+ΔO\-x；监测的目的是考察由扰动X引起的指标O的变化量ΔO\-x。提出建立经济系统监测指标体系的5项原则和三峡地区农业经济监测指标体系。针对不同系统特点和扰动特性，提出8种监测方法。以对三峡库区秭归县水田坝乡上坝区域柑桔产业开发对农民人均纯收入和耕地资源使用结构的影响的监测为例，阐明监测原理和方法的应用过程。实例分析得出4点主要结论：(1)上坝区域柑桔产量对农民人均纯收入有着显著的影响，两者成指数关系；(2)柑桔产业不比传统农业产业更具有抗风险能力；(3)柑桔产业开发给上坝区域带来农民人均纯收入的净增长速度为25元/a；④柑桔产业开发是以减少其它产业耕地使用量为代价的。

The principle for monitoring disturbed agricultural economic systems is proposed in this paper. According to this principle, the variation $ΔO$ of target $O$ of economic system S is divided into two parts. One is ΔOS which is caused by the development of S without the disturbance X. The other is ΔO\-X which is caused only by the disturbance X. The task of monitoring is to measure the size of ΔOX The target system monitoring of agricultural economy in the area of Three Gorges is established. Eight monitoring methods are demonstrated according to the background and characteristics of systems and the characteristics of disturbance. The impact of mandarin orange industry on per capita of peasants in Shangba area of Zigui County is monitored according to the principle and methods. Four conclusions are drawn:①Per capita of peasants in Shangba area has exponential relationship with mandarin orange production;②The mandarin orange industry has no more ability to resist risks than traditional agricultural industries;③The development of mandarin orange industry makes the increase speed of per capita of peasants in Shangba area 25 yuan per year higher than in the control area; ④The development of mandarin orange industry gives a decrease in the cultivated land as used in other agricultural industries.