区域地质灾害气象预警模型研究现状与展望

Current Situation and Prospect of Regional Geo-hazards Meteorological Early Warning Model

降雨是引发地质灾害的主要诱发因素之一。本文在分析国内外地质灾害气象预警研究进展的基础上,根据目前对地质灾害进行气象预警所采用的模型(方法)的分类,分别对各种类别的预警模型的特点进行了对比分析。结果表明:基于数理统计学原理的隐式(第一代)、显式(第二代)预警模型具有较大的分散性、地域性、分析过程的主观性以及数据不充分引起的不稳定性或不完整性等特点,且对统计样本质量要求较高,存在不能解释地质灾害内部变形机制及预警结果难以验证的缺陷;基于动力学原理的第三代预警模型虽能弥补统计学预警模型的不足,但目前还处于探索阶段,仅局限于个别地区,未能得到更广泛的应用。为了提高预警系统的预警能力,指出三代预警模型的耦合预警将是今后重点研究的发展方向。

Rainfall is a key factor that triggers geological disasters,and it is also one of the most active predisposing factors. Based on the analysis of the research progress of the meteorological early warning of geological disasters at home and abroad, according to the classification of models （methods） used by the meteorological early warning of geological disasters, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the early warning model for each category. The results show that implicit （first generation） and explicit （second generation） early warning models, which are based on the principle of mathematical statistics,have the characteristics of large dispersion, localness, the subjectivity of analy- sis process and instability or imperfection because of inadequate data; in addition,they require higher quality of the statistical samples and have the defect of being unable to explain the internal deformation mechanism of geological hazards and the difficulty to verify the early warning results. Although the third generation early warning models based on the dynamics principle can compensate for the lack of statistical early warning models, they are in the ex ploring stage, have tile limited use only in some regions,and fail to get wide application. For the purpose of impro ving the early warning capability of early warning systems, the coupling warning of the third generation models will be the main research direction in the future.