我国工业化过程中的能源约束分析:基于情景预测视角

Analysis on the Energy Constraints in the Industrialization Process of China:Based on Scenario Forecasts

在分析我国能源约束现状基础上利用向量自回归模型预测了2013—2020年间不同情景下中国能源约束的变动趋势,认为中国工业化将面临着越来越严重的能源制约。这种制约的存在会影响我国工业化的顺利进行。要解除这些制约,可采取以下措施:努力改变投资依赖型和出口导向型的经济增长方式,促进产业结构的战略性调整;加强先进能源技术的研发和产业化,打造低耗竞争能力;积极推进能源价格改革;树立新资源安全观,合理开发利用能源资源。

This paper analyzes the status quo of the energy constraints of China empirically,forecasts the changes of the trends of energy supply and the demand changes in 2013—2020 by using the vector autoregressive model based on different scenarios,and comes to the conclusion that the industrialization of China will face more and more serious energy constraints.To lift these constraints,we can take the following measures: changing the mode of economic growth,promoting the strategic adjustment of industrial structure,strengthening R&D and energy technologies and promoting the reform of energy prices.