东北玉米带热量资源的变化规律研究

STUDY ON THE VARIATION LAWS OF THE THERMAL RESOURCES IN MAIZE-GROWING BELT OF NORTHEAST CHINA

应用线性回归、非整数波谱和小波分析等方法 ,分析了东北玉米主产区热量资源的长期演变趋势和变化周期 ,并对未来 1 0a的情况进行初步预测。要素包括 :日平均气温稳定≥ 7℃、≥ 1 0℃的初、终日期 ,≥ 1 0℃积温和 5月～ 9月平均气温之和。结果表明 ,近半个世纪内 ,≥ 7℃、≥ 1 0℃初日有逐渐提前的趋势 ,农业生产季内热量资源有增加趋势 ,但近些年这些要素较不稳定。界线温度初、终日存在 2 3a、1 5a和 9a左右的变化周期 ,≥ 1 0℃积温和 5月～ 9月气温之和存在 60a、3 5a～ 4 1a、1 5a～ 1 6a、9a和 3a～ 4a变化周期。目前所处的长周期内的暖期很可能在 2 0 1 0年前后结束 ,积温增加的趋势和农作物播期提前的趋势也将缓解 ,而且在中短周期内 ,近几年积温可能将减少 ,冷害和霜冻可能发生 。

The changing features and cycle of the agrothermal resources in major maize growing belt of Northeast China are analyzed by using linear regression,no integer wave and wavelet analyzer methods.The changing trend of main agroclimatic factors in the future 10 years are analyzed.The main factors include the first date and final date of air temperature≥7℃ and 10℃ stably;the accumulated temperature≥10℃; and the sum of mean air temperature from May to September.The result showed that the first dates have tended to occur early in the recent half century,and the thermal resources in the farming seasons tended to increase but the temperature conditions have become nonstable in recent years.The first and final dates of the limit temperature keep cycle variations of about 23,15 and 9 years,the accumulated temperature≥10℃ and the sum of mean temperature keep several cycle variations of 60,35～41,1～16,9 and 3～4 years.By the year 2010,the warmer period might probably end around the longer climatic cycle (60 years),and the increasing tendency of the accumulated temperature and the advancement of sowing period will be declining.In the medium and short cycles,the accumulated temperature might be reduced in recent years,low temperature calamity and frost may occur frequently.therefore, both crop varieties and sowing time adjusted accordingly.