河流枯水极值分析与模型预测研究

ANALYSIS OF RIVER LOW-FLOW EXTREMES AND STUDY ON MODEL PREDICTION

以我国西南地区澜沧江流域干支流为例 ,对其枯水特征与径流补给 ,径流年内变化及其枯水期分布做了概要的分析 ,同时对其河流枯水进行了模型应用研究。通过枯水最小月流量的试验以及显示的随机性 ,采用了轮次模型 ,利用了 1 1个测站 ,2 7a～ 3 1a不等的序列数据 ,开展了枯水预测计算 ,其结果多年负轮长为 2 1 3 (a) ,即小于最小月流量多年平均值。这表明其枯水出现的历时周期短 ,因此 ,在对该河流开发时应予以调控 ,统筹规划。由上可知 ,运用轮次算法对河流枯水的极值分析与预测是一经济实用的研究方法。

Taking trunk stream and tributaries of the Lancangjiang drainage basin in Southwest China as a case,this paper gives a general examination of the low flow characteristics and runoff replenishment as well as intra annual variation of the runoff and low flow distribution of the river along with low flow model application analysis.Low flow prediction and calculation by using sequential data ranging from 27 to 31 years from 11 statins were conducted aided by model of runs on the basis of low flow minimum monthly discharge test and the displayed stochasticity.Results indicated that the negative run length years was 2 13,or smaller than the annual aver age value of the minimum monthly discharge.It is thus clear that duration of low flow was short which should be controlled and overall planned in the process of river exploration.The above studies proved that the runs arithmatics provides an economical and valuable means of research on low flow extremes analysis and prediction.