增长刚性、财政支出竞争、信贷扩张与中国的通货膨胀

The Growth Rigidity,Fiscal Expenditure Competition, Credit Dilation and the Inflation of China

从新政治宏观经济学视角研究经济增长刚性、财政支出竞争及信贷扩张对中国通货膨胀的效应,认为在刚性经济增长目标约束下,由于居民消费需求不振且受到国际危机等外部冲击,地方政府为显示工作能力或工作努力程度等信息,有较强的机会主义动机运用财政、信贷扩张手段刺激区域经济超出潜在均衡产出水平。用1995—2010年中国分省面板数据的实证研究表明,区域经济偏离潜在均衡产出水平造成的(正)产出缺口是中国20世纪90年代中后期以来通货膨胀的重要原因。

／The article researches the effects of the economic growth rigidity, fiscal expenditure competition and credit dilation on the inflation of China with the new political mac - economists perspective. It suggests that the local government has strong opportunistic motive to reveal the information of their work ability and effort degree, through fiscal and credit exaggeration, and stimulate the regional e-conomic growth over the potential level when the economic shocked by the international crisis and the insufficient consumption demand of residents. The empirical analysis with the pool data of provinces during 1995--2010 suggests that the inflation of China since middle period of 1990s resulted from the output gap（ positive） which reduced by the regional economic deviate from the potential equilibrium level.