预测2013——齐鲁证券:纸业正处底,未来或向好

[2013 prediction] Qilu Securities: paper industry is in trough, however, its future will be probable good

造纸板块未来向好的概率较大。根据板块估值，未来的供需矛盾趋势及中下游库存情况等方面分析．随着2013年经济的复苏，多数纸种的价格和盈利水平将回升。鉴于造纸板块目前处于业绩、估值双底的态势．未来纸厂销售有望因中下游库存降至临界水平而上升。同时产业资本的逐步进入（上市公司回购）．均表现出造纸板块目前长期投资价值正在逐步显现。

At the present, paper industry is in trough. The supply-demand contradiction is produced under the general backgroud of economy downturn and demand growth slide; and the pricing of paper products in passiveness because of products homogenization and supply over demand, which lead to the benefit of paper industry is in low. Although the paper industry is in trouble, however, the prospect of paper industry future will be good according to the trend of supply and demand and the situation of inventory.