基于CDECGE模型的中国能源需求情景分析

Analysis of China's Primary Energy Demand Scenarios Based on the CDECGE Model

从我国未来经济社会发展目标出发,根据不同的政策目标设定了3种经济发展情景:基准情景、强化低碳情景和粗放型情景。分析了3种情景下我国未来的一次能源需求量、能源消费结构及CO2排放趋势,为把握我国未来的能源安全形势、控制温室气体排放提供了有效的政策分析工具。研究方法是在Monash模型的基础上构造的我国能源经济动态可计算一般均衡模型(CDECGE)。结果显示,按照现在的经济增长方式和增长率预期,如果没有额外的政策措施,2020年之前我国能源需求仍将快速增长,但在适度的低碳政策引导下,我国2020年的能源需求将控制在45.52亿t标煤,CO2排放强度将达到1.635 t/万元,相对2005年下降45%。碳税作为一种经济减排政策,会有效的降低CO2排放,减少化石能源的需求,使经济向低碳社会转型,从而实现2020年CO2排放强度降低的减排目标。因此,为减缓能源需求量的快速增长趋势,实现减排目标,可以从改善产业结构、实行碳税政策等方面采取措施,优化能源结构,实现经济结构转型,从而保障能源供应安全和控制温室气体排放。

In response to China＇ s future economic and social development goals, this paper explored three economic development scenarios： the baseline scenario, the enhanced, low-carbon scenario, and the extensive economic growth scenario. The paper analysed China＇ s primary energy demand, CO2 emissions trends, and energy consumption structure under different policies, and the model can be an effective policy tool for analysing China＇ s future energy security situation and controlling China＇ s greenhouse gas emissions. A dynamic energy computable general equilibrium （CGE） model, which was based on the Monash model, was used to evaluate China＇ s energy economy （ CDECGE Model） . The investigation results show that due to the current economic growth patterns and the economic growth rate, without new policy measures. However, under appropriate low-carbon policies, the primary energy demand will be decreased to 4.55 billion tons of standard coal equivalents, and the emissions in 2020 will be 1. 635 metric tons of carbon dioxide per ten thousand Yuan, decreasing emissions by 45% from the 2005 emissions level. The conclusions show that a carbon tax will reduce the demand for fossil fuels and decrease carbon dioxide emissions, transform China to a low-carbon society and achieve the carbon dioxide emissions reduction target by 2020. Therefore, many energy related policies can be adopted, such as improving the industrial structure and implementing a carbon tax policy, to slow the rapid growth of energy demand, optimise the energy structure, promote restructuring of economy, and achieve objectives of emissions reduction. These policies can help to protect the security of the energy supply and control greenhouse gas emissions.