就业创造还是就业替代——OFDI对中国就业影响的区域差异研究

Employment Creation or Employment Substitution: Regional Difference and Dynamic Effect of OFDI on the Employment in China

进入21世纪以来,中国对外直接投资规模迅猛增长,成为影响中国经济发展越来越重要的因素,是吸纳劳动力就业和提高劳动力素质的一条新途径。对外直接投资的母国就业效应随着时间和地区的不同主要表现为就业创造效应和就业替代效应。本文利用中国30个省份2003-2010年的面板数据,考察了对外直接投资对国内就业的影响,以及这种影响在各个地区之间的差异。结果表明,从全国范围来看,对外直接投资对就业的创造效应要大于替代效应。由于我国对外直接投资发展存在着区域非均衡性,使得各地区对外直接投资对就业的影响存在着差异,东部地区对外直接投资对就业的创造效应大于替代效应。中部地区两种效应大体相当,二者相抵后表现出不确定效应。而西部地区对外直接投资由于起步较晚,目前对就业的影响主要表现为替代作用。因此,政府在制定对外直接投资促进政策时,应该更为注重区域的分类和细化,引导我国对外直接投资的区域均衡发展,以改善区域就业结构。

Since the beginning of the 21st century, China＇ s rapidly growing OFDI has become an increasingly important factor to affect the economic development and has paved a new way to absorb the domestic labor force and to improve the quality of labor force. The home country employment effects of OFDI are mainly realized by the creation effect and the substitution effect in different periods and regions. This paper explores the home country employment effect and the regional difference of China＇ s OFDI by usin~ the province- level panel data from 2003 to 2010. Results show that the employment creation effect of OFDI surpasses the employment substitution effect from the whole countrywide level. It is also found that, as a result of regional non-equilibrium of China＇ s OFDI development, the employment effect has significant regional difference. The employment creation effect is stronger than the substitution effect in the east region while the two effects have approximately similar but uncertain results in the central region. However, the west region＇ s OFDI mainly shows substitution effect on employment at present due to its later development. More attention should be therefore paid to the classification and refinement in the regional development of foreign direct investment promotion policies. Accordingly, the government should guide the balanced development of OFDI in order to improve the regional employment structure.