中国社会保险缴费对就业的挤出效应

The Crowing-out Effect of Social Security Contribution on Employment

近年来我国社会保险制度快速发展,社会保险缴费不断增长,其对劳动力市场上的影响也逐渐凸显,表现之一是我国的就业增长相对于劳动人口的增长显得非常缓慢。梳理国内外相关文献发现,社会保险缴费会对就业产生挤出效应。本文在理论上讨论了社会保险缴费产生就业效应的作用机制,并通过2004-2010年的省级面板数据分析,发现我国社会保险缴费的快速增长对就业有挤出效应。在其他条件不变的情况下,社会保险缴费率每增加1%,平均来说会导致总就业水平减少0.153%,城镇就业水平减少0.06%。分区域的研究表明,社会保险缴费对我国的高收入地区和中等收入地区的就业都有显著的挤出效应,但是对低收入地区的就业影响不明显。本文的政策含义是要注意社会保险缴费的快速上涨可能会对就业产生不利影响,应该减轻企业和个人的社保负担。

There are great development of China＇ s social security system and rapid growth of the contributions in recent years, the impact of which are increasingly prominent on the labor markets. One of these impacts can be seen from the slow growth of employment compared with the huge growth of labor force. Through the study of relevant literatures, we find that social security contributions have crowing out effect on employment. The effect of social security contribution on employment is studied theoretically in this paper. Based on the provincial panel data of China, the analysis reveals that the rapid growth of social security contribution rate has a crowding-out effect on employment in China. A 1% increase in social security contribution rate decreases gross employment rate by 0. 153% and urban employment rate by 0.06% on average, ceteris paribus. The further research on different areas shows that the growth of social security contribution has a significant crowding-out effect on employment in both high and middle income regions, while it is not significant in low income regions. As the policy suggestion, this paper indicates that the negative effect of social security contribution growth on employment should be coneemed and the contribution burden levied on both employer and employee should be lightened.