用于舰艇效能评估的兰彻斯特方程改进研究

Improved Lanchester Equations for the Ships’Operational Effectiveness Evaluation

作战效能是舰艇作战系统设计中需首要考虑的指标。兰彻斯特方程被广泛应用于陆/空战的作战效能评估,但由于海战的特殊性,其无法直接应用于舰艇作战系统作战效能的评估。为解决该不足,通过改进多元兰彻斯特方程的作战推演模型和作战单元模型,建立适于评估舰艇作战系统作战效能的改进型兰彻斯特方程。为了验证改进型兰彻斯特方程的有效性,针对一组典型的作战系统配置方案,分别采用多元兰彻斯特方程和改进型兰彻斯特方程进行计算。结果表明,改进型兰彻斯特方程对海战过程的推演更接近于真实的海战交战过程,可为基于作战效能的舰艇作战系统方案设计提供理论支持。

The operational effectiveness is a primary factor to be considered during the design process of shipboard combat systems. The Lanchester equations, which are widely used in evaluating the operational effectiveness of air-fights and land battles, can not be directly applied to naval battles. To address this is- sue, this paper modifies the combat simulation model and the combat unit model in Multi-Lanchester equations, and establishes a set of improved Lanchester equations, which can be employed to assess the operational effectiveness of shipboard combat systems. To validate the proposed method, a group of typical configuration schemes for shipboard combat systems are evaluated using both the Multi-Lanchester equa- tions and the improved Lanchester equations. The experiment results reveal that the improved Lanchester equations, compared with the conventional ones, can provide more realistic gaming of the naval engage- ment process, which can be viewed as theoretical references when designing the operational effectiveness based shipboard combat system.