中国区域环境质量动态综合评价——基于污染排放视角

DYNAMIC COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY FOR CHINA——BASED ON POLLUTION EMISSIONS

中国经济取得举世瞩目成就的同时,也付出了沉重的环境代价,环境污染不仅造成了巨大的经济损失,还严重制约了社会的全面发展。科学评价我国环境质量的现状,是改善环境质量的前提,对可持续发展而言具有重要的现实意义。从空气、水、废弃物、垃圾、噪声、土壤等6个方面构建包含11个指标的环境质量综合评价体系,采用基于整体差异驱动的"纵横向拉开档次"评价方法,从不同角度对全国30个省区2003～2010年的环境质量进行动态综合评价,结果显示:从环境总量视角评价,西部最好;从经济发展的环境代价视角评价,东部最小;从人均污染物排放视角评价,西部最多。本文还借鉴经济学的收敛性检验方法,研究中国区域环境质量的内在演变规律。在此基础上,为我国节能减排、可持续发展提出政策建议。

Abstract：Although reform and opening up in China over the past 30 years has made remarkable economic a- chievements,China pay heavy ecological and environmental costs. Environmental pollution not only causes huge economic losses, but also severely restricts the comprehensive development of society. Therefore, sci- entific evaluation of the status quo of the environmental quality in different region of China is the premise of improving environment quality. It＇s the foundation to construct resource-saving and environment-friend- ly society. The issue, from the six dimensions of air, water, waste, garbage, noise, soil and so on, constructed a comprehensive evaluation system for environmental quality which contained 11 indicators（carbon dioxide e- missions;industrial waste gas emission; the total emission of sulfur dioxide emissions; soot emissions; in- dustrial dust emission; industrial waste water discharge; sewage discharge; industrial solid wastes dis- charged;noise level;living garbage transport volume; the amount of chemical fertilizer） and employed a e- valuation method called ＂vertical and horizontal scatter＂ based on the overall differences. From different perspectives,this paper also evaluated the environmental quality synthetically and dynamically for over 30 provinces and regions during 2003-2010,and tested the convergence to study its internal evolution. The re- suits are as follows. （1）From the perspective of environment pollution（ ENide-1 ） ,the environment quality of the West was the best, the East was better than the Middle, but the index of pollution in the West showed the tendency of rising. （2）From the perspective of environment cost for economic development （ ENindex-2 ）,the East was the lowest and occupied the first, the Middle was second, and the West was the worst. Shanxi, Qinghai, Guagnxi, Neimenggu were the most environmental cost regions, while Beijing, Shanghai,Tianjin,Guangdong were the least environmental cost provinces. （3） From the perspective of per capita pollution emission（ ENindex-3）, the East was the least and occupied the first,the Middle was second. The West was the worst and rose since 2008. （4） It was different forσ convergence. There was divergent of ENindex-1 in overall country,the East,the Middle and the West,but was convergent since 2005. ENindex-2 was convergent since 2007 in the East and the Middle. ENindex--3 was convergent in the East and the Middle,but the overall country was divergent. （5）In the test results of absolute β convergence , ENindex-1 was convergent in overall country,but ENindex-2 and ENindex-3 were not. The ENindex-1, ENindex-2 and ENindex-3 in overall country were not club convergence. The ENindex-1 , ENindex-2 and ENindex-3 were club convergent in the Middle since 2007. The ENindex-1 was club convergent in the West,but the others were divergent. （6） As for the tests of conditional β convergence, Eindex-1 and ENindex-2 in overall country were convergent,the ENindex-3 was diver- gent. The pattern of economic growth and human capital had significant effects on the convergence in EN;index- 1 of overall country,and human capital was helpful for convergence in ENindex-2 . All indexes in the East, the Middle and the West were not convergent. On this basis,this paper could provide some policy suggestions ~or energy conservation and emission reduction in sustainable development in our country .