江西省风电场气象风险及其特征分析

Meteorological Risk and Characteristics of Wind Farms in Jiangxi

为找出江西省风电场运营的气象灾害风险，保障其风电场的安全运营，本文利用江西省1959年-2009年87个气象站温度、雷暴、积冰、气象灾情、热带气旋等资料分析了江西省风电场的气象风险及其特征。研究表明：低温、台风对江西省风电场基本不构成危害；江西省风电场的主要气象风险是雷暴和积冰。江西省雷暴发生频率较高，年均雷暴日数由北向南逐渐增加，山地多平原少，沿江或沿湖地区较少，内陆较多。8月达到最高值，冬季最少；高山地区积冰日数、积冰直径、重量明显高于其它地区，庐山年均积冰日数为77天，极端最大积冰直径为175、266mm，最大积冰重量高达（3．4～5．4）kg/m。在影响风电场的诸多气象风险中，积冰是目前较难解决的问题。

Based on temperature, thunderstorm, ice, meteorological disasters, tropical cyclone data and other data form 87 meteorological stations in Jiangxi province from 1959 to 2009, the meteorological risk of wind farms in Jiangxi was analyzed. The results show that in the past 50 years, the minimum temperature of Jiangxi province never exceeded -20 ℃. Tropical cyclones not only cause great harm to wind turbine blades, they bring considerable energy resources to Jiangxi province. Dust has some influence on the 2 m high box-type transformer of wind farms in the Poyang Lake Area. The main meteorological risks for wind farms in Jiangxi are thunderstorms and ice; thunderstorms occur with a higher frequency. In the past 50 years, the average thunderstorm days increased gradually from north to south and the maximum appeared in August; the minimum appeared in winter. In southernmost Jiangxi, annual average thunderstorm days were as high as 70- 77 days; in mountainous areas of southern Jiangxi the average was 63-70 days; in the northern area, the average number of thunderstorm days was 50; and in the northern part of Poyang Lake, the average was 40 days. Lightning occurs more around Poyang Lake than in southern areas. In the mountainous areas, the ice days, and ice thickness and weight are higher than other areas. The annual average number of ice days for Lushan Mountain （height 1165 re）is was 77 days, the extreme maximum ice diameter was 176 and 266 mm, and the maximum ice weight was （3.4-5.4） kg/m. This paper only analyzed the main meteorological factors for Jiangxi province and identified two meteorological risks for wind farms in the province. The degree of influence and risk planning require further analysis.