三峡库区农户土地流转的理论解析

A Mathematic Model of Farm Household Land Transfer in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

本文通过构建理论数理模型,分析阻碍三峡库区土地流转发生与发展的因素,为土地使用权的灵活使用打开一条流转双方可有效对接的便捷通道。首先假设农户为"理性经济人",将农户综合净收益分解为生产、流转和非农三项,考虑到农业生产的弱质性和非农就业的不稳定性,库区土地流转双方对接受阻的困境在于双方均想借助土地流转将所持资源最大限度地动员起来,以追求综合净收益的最大化目标能否实现为基准。然后基于双方净收益最大目标求解模型,理论解析库区农户土地流转影响因素的作用轨迹:承包土地面积、农业生产成本、农产品价格、农业生产收益安全系数和家庭拥有资本量共同影响农业生产的净收益,属流转双方作出流转决策行为的基础依据;单位面积土地流转年租金和流转年限共同控制土地流转净收益多少,属流转双方评判流转净收益的根本指标,是有效流转发生"博弈"的关键;非农就业概率和非农就业工资显著影响非农就业净收益,是开启农户对土地依赖性松动及拉动土地流转发生的根本力量和最主要的外施驱动因素。

The objective of this study was to theoretically analyze the development of land transfer using mathematic models and provide a convenient channel for the effective connection of transferrers in flexibly utilizing land-use rights. We assumed the production management goal was that land transfer optimizes the allocation of resources, labor force and land economic value. A theoretical decision model was established based on these assumptions. The function trajectories of factors affecting land transfer were identified theoretically in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Agricultural production net income, as the fundamental basis of transferrer behavior in making land transfer decisions, was found to be influenced by the original contract land area, agricultural production costs, agricultural product price, agricultural production income security coefficient and family capital ownership. The amount of land transfer net benefit was controlled by annual rent of unit area and transfer time, belonging to the fundamental index of transferrers evaluating land transfer net benefits and the effective transformation followed Game Theory. The probability of rural laborers dealing with off-farm employment and the wages of choosing off-farm occupations influenced non-agricultural employment net earnings; this is also the basic force and the most important factor for farmers to lose land dependence and pull the land transfer. Taking into account weak agricultural production and non-agricultural employment instability, the reservoir area land transfer predicament is that both sides would like to use the land transfer and mobilize maximum resources.