财政规则与政策效果——基于DSGE分析

Fiscal Rules and Effects of Policy:Analysis Based on DSGE Model

政府是经济活动的重要参与者之一,政府行为需要受到一定规则的约束,否则经济可能不存在唯一的均衡或各种政策的效果会相互抵消。本文在动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)框架下研究了政府购买规则、融资规则和自动稳定规则之间的相互影响。研究发现,首先,当扭曲税率依据上期债务规模调整时,经济具有唯一均衡的税率弹性空间最大;其次,自动稳定规则可以拓宽税率的弹性空间;最后,具有唯一均衡的财政规则组合中,盯住税率与弱自动稳定规则组合最有利于政府购买实现刺激目标,盯住税率与强自动稳定规则组合最有利于实现稳定产出目标,盯住债务与弱自动稳定规则组合最有利于实现稳定就业和稳定价格目标。

Government is one of the important participators in the economy, whose behaviors have to be constrained by some rules, otherwise there will be no unique equilibrium of the economy or the effect of one policy counteracts with the effect of another. This paper adopts DSGE approach to study the interaction of government buying rule, financing rule and automatic stabilizing rule. It is found that： firstly, when the distortionary tax rate is adjusted according to previous period＇s debt, the space of tax elasticity which ensures the existence of unique equilibrium is maximum; secondly, automatic stabilizing rule enlarges the space of tax elasticity; thirdly, among the various compositions of policy rules, the composition of pegging tax rate and weak automatic stabilizing rule is best for stimulus goal of government buying, the composition of pegging tax rate and strong automatic stabilizing rule is best for stabilizing output, and the composition of pegging government debt and weak automatic stabilizing rule is best for stabilizing employment and price level.