金融抑制与经济结构转型

Financial Repression and Structural Transformation

结构转型是当前世界经济面临的主要问题之一。本文在经济结构转型的模型中,研究了金融抑制对产业结构变化的影响。模型表明经济资源会随着经济增长从工业部门不断流入服务业部门,从而使得服务业的比重不断上升。而政府可以采取金融抑制政策阻碍结构转型过程。通过抑制服务业,保护和促进工业部门的发展,从而造成服务业占比偏低,导致国内产业结构失衡。跨国面板数据的实证结果表明,金融抑制显著阻碍了结构转型。金融抑制程度越高,经济中服务业相对于制造业的比例会越低。基于不同收入水平的国家分组数据、不同的结构变量衡量以及不同的金融抑制指标的稳健性检验支持了这一结论。文章结果表明,在有政府干预和偏好工业部门发展的国家,金融抑制是结构失衡的重要因素。

This paper analyzes the relationship between financial repression and structural change. We present a simple theoretical model of structural transformation in which the impact of financial repression on unbalanced growth is studied. The model suggests that governments may choose to repress the financial sector to allow for continued development of the industry sector while inhibiting growth in the domestic service sector. We then present empirical evidence of financial repression having a significant negative effect on structural transformation. In countries with higher levels of financial repression, the development of the service sector is held back in favor of continued expansion of the industry sector. The results are robust to different country sample compositions, alternative measures of sectoral structure, and different measures of financial repression. The analysis suggests that financial repression may be an important driver of structural imbalances, especially in countries with heavy state intervention and where the government strongly favors industrial expansion. The findings have direct and important policy implications for governments that are experiencing rapid economic transformation due to high economic growth and that also use financial repression to achieve a long-run industrial output growth.