最低工资提升的劳动供给效应:一个基于自然实验的经验研究

Labor Supply Effects of Minimum Wages Increase:A Natural Experiment Approach

本文以2005年和2006年之间中国各省市最低工资的提升作为一项自然实验,使用就业方程和工作时间方程控制个体异质性,应用"双重差分法"分析了最低工资提升的劳动供给效应。研究结果表明:最低工资提升对女性就业产生了显著的负面影响,对男性周工作时间产生了显著的正面影响;随着最低工资提升幅度的逐渐增大,其对女性就业的负面影响越来越大,对男性工作时间的正面影响也越来越大;当最低工资提升30%以上时,其对男性就业也产生了显著的负面影响。因此,为了保证最低工资在提高低技能劳动力工资水平的同时,不会对其劳动供给产生较大负面影响,最低工资提升应该是一个适度渐进的过程。

In this paper, we consider minimum wages increase at provincial level between 2005 and 2006 as a natural experiment. By controlling for individual heterogeneity using employment function and working hours function, we study the labor supply effects of minimum wages increase using difference - in - differences method. The results show that minimum wages increase has significant negative impact on female employment while it has significant positive impact on male weekly working hours; with the gradual increase of minimum wages, its negative impact on female employment and positive impact on male working hours get larger; when minimum wages increase is above 30%, it also has negative impact on male employment. So, in order to ensure that labor supply is not greatly affected while wage level is effectively increased for less - skilled workers, the increase of minimum wages should be an appropriate and progressive process.