基于Logistic模型的三工河流域农户节水灌溉驱动力分析

Analysis on Driving Forces of Households' Water-saving Irrigation Decisionmaking in the Sangonghe River Basin Using the Logistic Model

基于三工河流域284份农户抽样问卷调查数据,总结了多因素作用下农户灌溉决策机理。自然因素是导致农户灌溉行为区域差异的根源,农户自身因素影响农户对灌溉和节水的认识,政府决策可有效调控农户决策行为。根据农户灌溉决策机理,选择耕地状况、政策管理、农户素质、家庭经济状况和农户当前灌溉特征5类因素,构建Logistic模型分析多因素与农户节水意愿的关系,得出影响农户选择节水灌溉的主要因子,按影响程度从大到小排序如下:灌溉水价>耕地区位>非农收入比重>耕地归属>农户对滴灌的了解程度>受访者性别>灌水量>家庭劳动力平均年龄>家庭耕地面积,并据此提出鼓励农户选择节水技术的建议。

Based on the data obtained through the 284 households＇ questionnaires investigation, we summa- rized the decision-making mechanism of households＇ irrigation. Natural factors were the most fundamental factors leading to regional irrigation method differences. Farmers＇ own conditions affected their awareness of irrigation methods and water conservation importance. Government＇s policies played an effective role in regulating households＇ decision-making behavior. According to the understanding to decision-making mecha- nism, the land condition, irrigation policies, farmers＇ qualities, households＇ economic conditions and the households＇ present irrigation methods were chosen to make a Logistic model to analyze the relations be- tween the multiple factors and households＇ willingness to save water. The results showed that the following factors were the main factors influencing households selection of water-saving technology, whatwater-sav- ings more, their influence degrees were different, that was, water price.farmland patch location〉propor- tion of non-farming income〉ownership of farmland patch〉comprehension degree on water-saving irrigation interviewees＇ gender〉irrigation quantity〉average age of labor.households farmland area. Then, some advices were put forward to encourage households to choose water-saving irrigation method.