中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的区域差异性研究

Regional Heterogeneity Among Energy Consumption,Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in China

基于1990～2010年我国30个省市面板数据,采用面板计量分析方法,考察我国源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间相互影响关系对空间区域的依赖性.研究结果表明:能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间不仅存在着相互影响的关系,且具有显著的区域差异性.各省份的经济发展均为各地区能源消费增长的重要诱因之一,这与能源消费与经济增长具有较高关联度的结论保持一致.北京、辽宁、吉林等16个省份碳排放变化与经济增长变化之间的的弹性系数为负值,而天津等其他14个省市碳排放总量还将伴随着经济增长而增长,所以弹性系数为正值,这点隐含说明当区域经济水平较高时,该区域也将拥有更多优势条件来减低碳排放,实现碳减排最终还是需要依赖于发达的经济水平.

Based on panel data of China＇s 30 provinces from 1990 to 2010, this paper used panel quantitative analysis methods to examine regional heterogeneity and dependence among energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in China. The results show that： energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth not only have the existence of the relationship of mutual influence, but also have significant regional differences. The provinces economic development is an im- portant cause of each regional growth of energy consumption, which is consistent with the conclusion of the high relevance be- tween economic growth and energy consumption, the elastic coefficient between carbon emissions change and economic growth changes is negative in Beijing, I.iaoning, Jilin and 16 provinces, while in other 14 provinces, such as Tianjin, ere, carbon emis- sions will increase with economic growth, so the coefficient of elasticity is positive. This implies that when the regional eco- nomic is in a high level, the region will have more favorable conditions to reduce carbon emissions, that is to say, carbon emission reduction ultimately still relies on the well-developed economic level.