中国货币政策与资产价格关系的统计研究

The Statistical Research of the Relationship between Monetary Policy and Asset Prices in China

作为最重要资产价格之一的房地产价格,对于金融稳定和社会经济有很大的影响,故需对其之间的关系进行定量分析。鉴此,梳理货币政策是否需要干预资产价格的文献,发现三类有影响的观点,并通过建立向量自回归模型,使用中国的经济数据,对货币政策和房地产价格之间的关系进行分析,结论表明:由于房地产在国民经济中处于支柱地位,并且房地产对货币政策的敏感性较强,故决策者应通过货币政策影响房地产价格与房地产投资,进而调控宏观经济。

As one of the most important asset price, the real estate price influenced financial stability and economical development, so we should analyze the relationship between them in quantitative analysis. The impact of monetary policy on asset prices had been one of the most topical issues in monetary economics over the last decades. We find three types of influential viewpoints on the research of whether monetary policy should be interfere in asset prices. We investigated the relationships between monetary policy and fluctuations in real estate prices with Chinese data. The conclusion is, as one pillar of the national economy, the sensitivity of the real estate sector to monetary policy is strong. To regulate the macroeconomy, the housing prices and real estate investment is affected by policymakers.