基于SVAR模型的碳排放量及其影响因素分析——以湖北省为例

Study on the Relationship Between Carbon Emissions and Factors on SVAR Model:Taking Hubei Province as the Case

省际经济体碳排放及其影响因素的计量分析对于国家一级碳排放目标的分散控制和推行低碳经济发展模式具有重要意义。基于能源、经济、社会和环境一体化分析框架基础上,采用结构向量自回归模型,利用湖北省1980—2008年的时序数据建立了碳排放量与影响因素关系的实证模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解探索影响系数大小和时期变化规律。结果表明:经济增长和产业结构对湖北省碳排放量具有正向影响,能源效率则具有抑制作用,人口发展、能源价格和城市化水平的影响作用不显著;湖北省碳排放量的变化受自身冲击影响逐渐递减,经济增长、城市化水平和能源效率对湖北碳排放量波动的贡献由弱增强。因此,优化产业结构、提升能源利用技术和能源资源的优化配置等都将成为湖北低碳经济发展模式中的核心内容。

Econometric analysis of carbon emissions to and intluencmg tactors lnter-provmclat economies is important for the decentralized control carbon emission targets and low-carbon economic development model at the national level. Based on energy, economic, social and environmental integration framework and the time series data of Hubei Province from 1980 to 2008, the paper builds an empirical model between carbon emissions and its factors by using the methods of Structural vector auto-regression, impulse response functions and variance decomposition and explores those factorg effect and time variation. The results show that economic growth and industrial structure of Hubei has a positive impact on carbon emissions, energy efficiency is inhibited, while the population growth, energy prices and urbanization level have no significant effect） impact of the change of Hubei carbon emissions by its own gradually decreasing, while economic growth, urbanization and energy efficiency of contribution to Hubei carbon emissions gradually increasing. The suggestion is that optimization of industrial structure, low-carbon type of urbanization, energy efficiency technological progress and optimization allocation of energy resources, those will be more concerned in realization of low-carbon economic development model of Hubei Provence in the future.