摘要
道路交通统计生命价值是道路交通安全项目经济评价的重要指标。运用意愿选择法和正交试验法设计了出行路径选择的调查问卷。假定时间、死亡风险为常数,费用服从对数正态分布,建立了基于MixedLogit模型的统计生命价值评价模型。以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象获得调查数据,利用Monte Carlo方法并借助GAUSS软件对模型进行了150次仿真实验。研究表明:模型各参数的估计值具有较强集中性,t检验值具有较强显著性,模型优度比较高。统计生命价值服从参数为0.922和0.814的对数正态分布,其数学期望是35万元,可以作为道路交通安全项目经济评价的参考数据。
The value of a statistical life （VOSL） in road traffic is an important index for economic evaluation on road safety programs. Firstly, the route-choice questionnaire is designed combined with the stated choice method （SCM） and the orthogonal experiment method. Then the VOSL model is established based on mixed logit model by supposing parameters of time and fatal risk are fixed and fee parameter has a lognormal distribution. Finally, 150 simulations are executed by Monte Carlo and Gauss based on the SCM data from drivers in Dalian. The research result indicates： parameters estimates are centralized and t-values are significant with high likelihood ratios. VOSL has a lognormal distribution whose parameters are 0. 922 and 0. 814, and its mathematical expectation is 350000RMB. It can be used as a reference to appraise road safety programs.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
2013年第2期109-112,共4页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家自然科学基金项目<考虑诱增交通量的交通需求预测模型的基础研究>(50978046)
