如何应对粮价高涨和波动

Managing High and Volatile Food Prices

最近一段时期以来粮价的高涨和波动使人们对很多长期存在的假设产生了怀疑,例如对实际粮价下跌必然性的假设,同时这也标志着一个较长的粮价稳定期的结束。主要粮食产量增长的放缓和生物燃料生产的快速增长被认为是粮价上涨的主要原因。粮价涨幅过高和波动是两个值得关注的问题。应对高粮价的主要措施,包括对农村的研究,以及更广义上的对农村发展问题的重点关注和对生物燃料作用的反思。应对粮价波动的最有效措施是改善市场信息和减少产量波动。社会安全网络的建立是应对粮价波动影响的最佳政策,而被广泛使用的贸易和库存的政策影响却较为复杂且效果并不确定。

The recent period of high and volatile food prices has cast doubt on many longstanding assumptions such as the inevitability of declining real food prices, and brought to an end a long period of food price stability. Some of the key driving forces appear to have been declines in yield growth for major commodities and the rapid growth of biofuels. Both high food prices and volatile food prices are justly causes for concern. Key elements of the cure for high food prices include a strong focus on rural research and development, as well as rural develop- ment more generally, and a reconsideration of the role of biofuels. The best cures for food price volatility aim to reduce it by improving market information and reducing output volatility. Social safety nets are the best policy for coping with its effects, while the widely-used trade and storage policy measures have many complex and uncertain effects.