慢性溃疡性结肠炎复发气象预报研究

Research on the Relationships BetweenMeteorological Factor and the Recurrence of Chronic Ulcerative Colitis

目的 :探讨气候因素对慢性溃疡性结肠炎复发的影响,建立慢性溃疡性结肠炎气象-临床治疗新途径。方法 :收集整理逐日温、压、湿、风等气象要素资料以及与之相对应的病例发病情况,建立医疗气象指数预报方程。确立适合临床应用的敏感的、可信的预测指标,对具高危溃疡性结肠炎复发倾向患者进行前瞻性早期预测。研究疏肝健脾类中药对于溃疡性结肠炎复发的早期干预作用。结果 :经过综合分析,应用逐步回归方法建立溃结复发的日预报数学模型:Y=1.313-0.0079 X6-0.22 X7,其发病主要与发病日前连续3天日平均气温、平均气温前的3天的72 h变量相关。将模型应用于慢性溃疡性结肠炎复发就诊人数的等级预报中,并根据预报值提早服用疏肝健脾方,早期组、中期组、晚期组、对照组的复发率分别为:38.5%、36.8%、31.6%、73.7%。结论 :溃疡性结肠炎慢性复发型患者的复发高峰期往往与天气变同步,建立天气预报方程,可以根据天气预报早期服药,可以达到降低疾病复发率的作用。

Objeetive： To study the impact of climatic factors on the recurrence of chronic ulcerative colitis and its new clinical therapeutic approach. Method： Organizing daily meteorological factors such as temperature, pressure, humidity, wind data and the cases of incidence, the meteorological index prediction equation about the recurrence of ulcerative colitis was established to explore the protective effects of early intervention for recurrence of ulcerative colitis using Shuganjianpi drugs during the winter and spring climate change. Result： After comprehensive analysis, the UC recurrence Day Forecast mathematical model was established ： Y = 1.313 - 0.0079 X6- 0.22 X7. Its incidence variables related of day average temperature（ X6 ） and the 72 h variables in the average temperature （ X7 ）.By using this model to the recurrence of chronic ulcerative colitis, early to take Shuganjianpi drugs in early group, medium group, late group according to the predicted value, the recurrence rates were ： 38.5%, 30.6%,44.7%, 72.6%.Conclusions ： The model for recurrence of chronic ulcerative colitis can be established to predict the number of patients, respectively, which indicates that the methods are feasible and applicable in application.