山东省农业经济空间布局——基于探索性空间数据的实证分析

Agricultural Economic Spatial Distribution in Shandong Province:Empirical Analysis Based on Exploratory Spatial Data

采用探索性空间分析方法,以县域为空间单元,刻画了1999年、2007年和2010年山东省农业总产出及五大类主要农产品产出的空间分布模式,并对山东省农业产出的空间相关性进行了测定。研究结果显示:山东省农业总产出的空间分布基本呈"核心-边缘"模式,空间相关性和区域布局具有一定的稳定性;粮食、棉花和油料作物的生产在空间上具有明显的集聚特征和经济外溢性,肉类生产的上述效应相对较弱。最后提出:在开放经济及市场经济的背景下,制定考虑空间影响的农业政策,才能真正合理引导各区域农业协调生产,最终促进农业综合生产能力的提升。

Using the method of exploratory spatial data analysis, and taking the county as the spatial unit,this paper analyzes the economic spa tial distribution pattern of agricultural output and main agricultural products（food,meat, eotton and oilseed） in Shandong province in 1999,2007 and 2010. And then it calculates the spatial autocorrelation of agricultural output of Shandong. The results indicate as follows： the agricultural spatial distribution in Shandong shows the pattern of coreperiphery,and the spatial correlation and regional distribution of agricultural produc tion take on the stabilization in a certain degree,the production of food, cotton and oilseed have significant spatial agglomeration and economic spillover,and that of meat is relatively weak. Finally,it suggests that,in the background of opening economy and market economy,policy makers should make agricultural policies considering spatial effect to guide the harmonious production of agriculture in different regions correctly, fur ther to promote the enhancing of the comprehensive capability of agricultural production.