我国中部六省碳排放量影响因素分解分析

Influencing Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emission of Six Provinces in Central China

估算了1995—2009年期间我国中部六省的碳排放总量、人均碳排放量,从产业、能源消费结构、城乡消费结构的角度,对碳排放结构进行了分析。利用LMDI分解方法将碳排放量的影响因素分解为经济规模、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构以及碳排放系数,分析其具体影响,并进行省际比较。结果表明:1995—2009年期间中部六省的碳排放总量和人均碳排放量均呈增长趋势,且各省的差距较大;从产业结构和能源结构的碳排放情况看,各省的碳排放均来自第二产业和燃煤;经济规模的扩张是碳排放量增加的最主要因素,能源结构变化和碳排放系数变化对碳排放量变化的抑制作用不明显。

This paper calculates carbon emission＇s total amount and per capita carbon emission of six provinces in central China during 1995 2009, and analyzes the carbon emission from the perspectives of industrial structure, energy consumption structure and urbanrural consumption structure. Then it divides the influencing factors of carbon emission into economic scale, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure and carbon emission coefficient by LMDI model and studies their impacts. The result shows as follows：total amount and per capita carbon emis sion take on the increasing trend,and there is the big distinction among six provinces;carbon emission are mainly from the second industry and coal;the spread of economic scale is the main factor leading to the increasing of carbon emission, but the change of energy structure and carbon emission coefficient just decrease carbon emission slightly.