中国碳排放与经济增长间脱钩关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Decoupling Relationship Between Carbon Emission and Economic Growth in China

利用Tapio脱钩模型和Kaya恒等式,使用LMDI方法,建立扩展的Tapio脱钩模型。选取1990—2010年中国碳排放量和经济增长的数据,对中国碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系进行定量分析。研究结果表明:1990—2010年期间中国碳排放与经济增长总体上具有弱脱钩关系,经济增长是碳排放增加的主要原因,能源强度降低是实现碳排放与经济增长脱钩的关键。最后提出"降低能源强度、优化产业结构、调整能源结构"的对策以实现碳排放与经济增长的脱钩。

Based on Tapio model and Kaya identity, this paper constructs the expand Tapio model by using the method of logarithmic mean divi sia index. Using the data about China＇s carbon emission and economic growth from 1990 to 2010,it analyzes quantitatively the decoupling rela tionship between carbon emission and economic growth in China. The results show as follows., the deeoupling relationship between carbon emis sion and economic growth is proved to be weak decoupling economic growth is the main reason for the increasing of carbon emission;the decrea sing of energy intensity is the key to realize the decoupling between carbon emission and economic growth. Finally,it puts forward some sugges tions to achieve relative decoupling between carbon emission and economic growth, such as reducing energy intensity, optimizing industrial struc ture,adjusting energy structure and so on.