海南省旅游开发生态风险评价与预警机制

Ecological Risk Assessment and Early Warning Mechanism for Tourism Development in Hainan Province

根据海南省旅游发展现状,运用生态梯度评价方法,分析海南省旅游的主要风险源、风险受体和最大的生态效应,识别出海南省旅游开发存在一级、二级和三级共14类生态风险效应。以其中9类代表性生态风险效应为基础,构建由16个指标组成的旅游生态风险评价模型,运用模糊数学综合评价法,对三亚市、海口市、万宁市和琼海市进行风险等级划分。结果表明:三亚市、海口市位于一级生态风险区,万宁市和琼海市位于二级生态风险区,这4个地区的旅游开发均存在不同程度的生态风险,亟需开展旅游生态风险预警管理。为此,创新建立了由旅游生态风险预警运行机制、调控机制和管理机制组成的旅游生态风险预警机制,以防范旅游生态风险,推动海南省旅游生态系统的正常运行,促进海南省资源保护和旅游经济协调快速发展。

Hainan has advantages in abundant tourism resources, unique and innovative tourism products and increasing tourism economic strength, as well as good policy conditions for the development of tourism industry. At the same time, however, there are certain natural and man-made risk elements that may hinder the healthy development of tourism industry in the province. According to the current situation of tourism development, this paper describes the main stressor sources, the risk receptors, and the largest ecological effect： over Hainan by using the Procedure for Ecological Tiered Assessment of Risk method （PETAR）, and discriminates 14 ecological risk effects of tourism development in Hainan, which are classified into three levels including primary, secondary and tertiary levels. Taking 9 effects as representative ecological risk effects, the paper constructs a tourism ecological risk assessment model consisting of 16 indicators, and defines different risk levels for Sanya, Haikou, Wanning and Qionghai with fuzzy mathematics and synthetic evaluation methods. The results show that Sanya and Haikou are located in the first-level ecological risk area, while Wanning and Qionghai in the second-level ecological risk area. There are different ecological risk degrees of tourism development among those cities, and it is an urgent need for them to carrying out early warning management of tourism ecological risk. The authors consider that a tourism ecological risk warning mechanism, including operating mechanism, regulatory mechanism and management mechanism, should be innovatively established.