温特斯模型在重庆市戊肝监测中的应用

Application for Winters model on epidemic forecasting of hepatitis E in Chongqing Municipality

目的建立戊型肝炎(戊肝)分月发病情况预测的时间序列模型,探讨时间序列预测模型在戊肝预测预警方面的应用。方法利用SAS 9.13软件的时间序列预测系统(time series forecasting system)进行建模与分析。采用2005年1月至2010年12月的数据建模,并利用2011年1月至2011年6月的数据验证模型。结果重庆市2005-2010年戊肝分月发病情况适合用温特斯模型(Winters method-additive)来拟合。结论温特斯模型能够较好的应用于重庆市戊肝的预测,具有实际应用价值。

We aimed to construct time series model for forecasting the monthly cases of hepatitis E in Chongqing Munici- pality. The monthly cases of hepatitis E from 2005 to 2010 in Chongqing Municipality were analyzed by time series forecasting system in SAS 9.13. The model was established with the data from January in 2005 to December in 2010, and the data in 2011 was used for model validation. As a result, the Winters method-additive model was the automatically fitting model. In brief, the monthly cases of hepatitis E in Chongqing can be fitted by Winters model with an excellent application, and the model is practical for forecasting and warning hepatitis E epidemic situation in Chongqing.