新疆开都-孔雀河流域绿洲需水量与稳定性分析

Analysis of Water Demand and Stability for Oasis in Kaidu-Kongque River Basin,Southern Xinjiang

水是绿洲存在和发展的核心,干旱区绿洲稳定性与水密切相关.根据2000-2009年资料,采用蒸发系数法和定额法估算开都-孔雀河流域绿洲自然生态系统和社会经济系统综合需水量,并对水资源约束条件下的绿洲稳定性进行初步探讨.结果表明:2000-2009年,绿洲年均总需水量理论值约为54.80×108 m3,其中开都河绿洲总需水量约为20.55×108 m3,孔雀河绿洲总需水量约为21.90×108m3,博斯腾湖区耗水量约为12.35×108 m3,与绿洲10a平均供水量相比,供需表现出极大地不平衡性.水资源可承载绿洲面积(不含博斯腾湖)约为3139.66km2,其中可承载灌溉地面积约为1395.41km2,与绿洲10a平均面积5 248km2相比,差别较大,绿洲处于不稳定状态,现状绿洲面积应适当收缩.最后,对博斯腾湖最低生态水位进行讨论,初步把大湖最低水位定为海拔1 045m,小湖最低生态水位定为海拔1 046.5m.

Water is the core of the existence and the development of oasis,so arid oasis stability is closely related with water resources.According to data from 2000 to 2009,comprehensive 10-year average water demand is estimated using the methods of evaporation coefficient and quota for various natural ecosystem and social economic system in oasis of Kaidu-Kongque River basin,and oasis stability is discussed under the water resources constraint conditions.The results indicate that： 1） During the period of 2000 to 2009,the theoretical value of annual average water demand for oasis was about 54.80×10^8m^3,of which 20.55×10^8m^3 is in Kaidu River basin,21.90×10^8m^3 is in Kongque River basin and 12.35×10^8m^3 is in Bosten Lake,respectively.Compared with 10-year average water supply,one can see that there is a great imbalance between supply and demand of water.2） Oasis area supported by water resources is approximately 3 139.66 km^2（excluding Bosten Lake area）,there into,the area for irrigated agriculture is about 1 395.41 km^2.Oasis area supported by water resources is less than actually developing area（5 248 km^2）,which means that oasis is in unstable state and that the current oasis area should be properly drawn back.At last,the lowest ecological water level of Bosten Lake is preliminarily discussed,and altitude of 1 045 m is regarded as the lowest water level for the large lake,and that 1046.5 m is regarded as the lowest water level for the small lake.