国家经济风险对中国OFDI的影响——以东道国经济发展水平为门槛变量的实证分析

Impacts of Economic Risk on China's OFDI——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Threshold Variable Represented by the Level of Economic Development of Host Country

本文使用2003—2010年中国与78个投资东道国的面板数据,控制住影响中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的关键影响因素设定基准模型,然后引入国家经济风险变量考察了近年来中国的对外直接投资,结果表明东道国的国家经济风险显著负向影响中国的对外直接投资,进一步的分组检验显示这种影响在经济发展水平不同的国家之间具有明显的差异。在此基础上,本文选择东道国经济发展水平作为门槛变量,构建东道国国家经济风险影响我国对外直接投资的门槛模型,从东道国的经济发展水平方面测算了国家经济风险影响中国对外直接投资的门槛水平。

This article applies the panel data of China and 78 investment host countries, controls the key factors of China＇s outward foreign direct investment（OFDI） to set the benchmark model, introduces the national economic risk variables and in- vestigate China＇s OFDI in recent years （from 2003 to 2010）. The results show that the host country＇s economic risks have a significantl negative impact on China＇s OFDI. Further grouping tests have also shown that this impact correlates diversely with countries of different level of economic growth. The study therefore chooses the economic growth level of host countries as a threshold variable to build the threshold model to illustrate how a host country＇s economic risks affect China＇s OFDI, and e- valuates, in terms of the host country＇s economic development condition, the threshold level of national economic risk that affects China＇s OFDI.