中国公债风险预警机制的构建——基于公债运行的风险研究

On the Establishment of Risk Warning Mechanism of Chinese Bonds——A Study Based on the Operational Risks of Public Debt

中国公债的持续运行在拉动投资、促进经济快速增长中发挥了重要作用。然而,通过公债运行系统总况分析和对其各环节的具体剖析,公债运行存在着发行规模结构不当,公债使用效益低下,公债流通困难,最终导致财政偿还风险增加,这给国民经济稳定运行带来巨大的负面影响。因此,有必要建立公债风险预警系统,从风险识别、评估、报告到监督,实现宏观的监督与微观的指标双管齐下,适度控制公债发行规模扩张速度,减少公债发行成本,提高公债使用效率,增强还债能力,防范潜在的公共财政运行风险。

The continuous operation of public debt plays a very important role in promoting investment and economic growth. Based on the analysis of the overall condition of the operation system of public debt and various specific links, the study finds that in the operation of public debt there exist such problems as improper scale and distribution, low efficiency and difficult circulation, which increase financial risks and brings great negative influences to the stable operation of the national economy. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a risk warning system of loan, including risk identifying, evaluating, reporting, and supervising mechanism, to realize the combination of the supervision of macroscopic and microscopic index. Measures can be taken to moderately control the size and expansion speed of public debt, to reduce the cost, to improve efficiency, to enhance the ability to repay, and to prevent the potential risks in the process of public financial operation.