普京道路与俄罗斯政治的未来

Putin’s Road and Future of Russian Politics

普京第三次当选俄罗斯总统后,俄罗斯政治未来的发展前景受到世界各国学者的普遍关注。苏联解体之后,俄罗斯在戈尔巴乔夫和叶利钦时代遭遇了严重的政治衰退,陷入了危险的民主化陷阱。普京就任总统之后,以务实的精神确立了团结、稳定和"主权民主"等具有特色的发展理念,探索俄罗斯式的国家发展道路。在未来的发展过程中,虽然确立了现代化的发展方向,但从外部而言,普京将面对西方国家在民主模式、发展道路等问题上施加的巨大压力。在俄罗斯国内,自由派的挑战和官僚体系都会对俄罗斯未来的发展形成制约。发展目标与实施手段之间也存在着矛盾。未来俄罗斯很可能在维护稳定与竞争性改革的选择过程中不断摇摆,发展道路曲折而漫长。

Since Vladimir Putin was elected president for the third time, Russia＇s political prospects have aroused great concerns of global scholars. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has undergone a complex transition, suffering from a serious political decay in Gorbachev and Yeltsin eras, trapped into dangers. After Putin became president, he established pragmatically unique development concepts including unity, stability and ＂sovereign democracy＂, exploring a Russian-style development path. Although he has set the future orientation for Russia＇s development, still externally, Putin will face enormous pressure imposed by Western countries on the model of democracy, the development path and other issues. Domestically, challenges from liberals and the bureaucracy will constrain Russia＇s future development. There is also contradiction between development goals and means of implementation. In the future, Russia is likely to stall and hesitate in maintaining stability and carrying on competitive reform. The ultimate prospects are still to be observed.