环乌鲁木齐经济圈经济增长互动效应研究——基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析

Central Urumqi economic growth study on interaction effect——Pulse response analysis based on VAR model

运用VAR模型的广义脉冲响应分析和方差分解理论对环乌鲁木齐经济圈的三个代表城市的经济增长互动关系进行实证分析。脉冲响应结果表明:环乌鲁木齐经济圈经济增长在建成初期有显著的互动效应,并且除乌鲁木齐对石河子的拉动作用逐步消弱外,其他城市的互动效用正在逐步增加。从经济圈的长期发展来看,环乌鲁木齐经济圈经济增长互动效应逐步消弱,乌鲁木齐对石河子经济发展甚至产生了抑制作用;方差分解结果显示:环乌鲁木齐圈外层外部城市对经济圈城市的影响效应远远低于核心层和外圈层城市的影响效应。

This use of VAR models and variance decomposition theory for generalized impulse response analysis of three representatives of the city of Urumqi, central economic circle of economic growth ： an empirical analysis of the interactive relationship between. Impulse response results show that Central Urumqi economic circle of economic growth in the early completion of a significant interaction effect and pulling apart from Urumqi, shihezi gradually weakened, a interactive utility in other cities was increasing. Judging from the economic circle of the long - term development, Urumqi, central economic interaction effect of gradually weakening economic growth, Urumqi, shihezi economic development and even have a suppressing effect; variance decomposition results： circle the outer external of Urnmqi urban economic circle, central city is far less than the effects of the core layer and the outer layer effects of cities.