中国能源消费的组合预测

Combinatory Forecasting on the Energy Consumption of China

组合预测理论及建模技术对于信息不完备的复杂经济系统具有一定的实用性。鉴于能源消费系统的复杂性及非线性的特征,可利用中国能源消费量的历史数据,分别采用指数回归模型、多元回归模型及灰色模型建立中国能源消费系统的单项预测模型。之后,可采用标准差法进行非负权重分配,建立中国能源消费量的组合预测模型。分析结果表明,组合预测模型的精度高于单项预测模型。进而可应用该模型对中国未来10年的能源消费量进行预测。

The theory of combination forecasting and the skill of modeling are practicable in complex economic system with uncompleted information.Because energy consumption system is of complexity and non-linearity.firstly,we respectively make use of exponential regressing model,multivariate regression model,grey forecasting model to construct models depending on historical data of China energy consumption.Secondly,we propose the combination forecasting model of energy consumption by using standard variance to allocate the non-negative weights.The result shows that the precision of the combination forecasting model is greater than the single ones.Finally,we apply this kind of model to forecast China energy consumption in following 10 years.