动态条件下的高风险系统安全合作行为主观博弈研究——以“7·23”甬温线动车事故为例

Subjective Game Analysis of Safety Cooperative Behavior in High-risk-system under Dynamic Conditions——A Case of "7·23" Yongwen Line Railway Accident

为探索动态条件对高风险系统安全合作行为效率的影响,将动态成本因素引入演化博弈分析过程,构建一类主观博弈模型。以"7.23"甬温线动车事故为例,运用数值仿真方法分析事故演化过程及原因。结果显示,安全行为成本随时间递增且不利于系统安全。技术人员和运营人员均存在由人机替代效应导致的"搭便车"现象,且前者的"搭便车"问题更突出。提出加强人工控制应急演练、增加安全冗余并严惩"搭便车"现象、加强技术人员的责任认定、运用多媒体手段增强人员风险意识等4项建议。

To explore the relationship between dynamic conditions and efficiency of safety cooperative behavior in the high-risk-system, the dynamic cost factor was introduced in evolutionary game analysis process, and a subjective game model was built. The ＂7 ~ 23＂ Yongwen Line Railway Accident was taken as a case. By using numerical simulation methods, the evolution process of and reasons for accident were analyzed. The results show that cost of safe behavior increases with time progressively, and is unfavorable to the system safety, and that phenomena of hitching a lift occur among both technology personnel and oper- ations personnel, especially among the former. Finally, suggestions were given such as doing emergency response exercise, increasing redundancy, strengthening the responsibility of technical staff, using multi- media tools to enhance staff awareness of risks.