基于投影寻踪技术的洪水灾情综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation of Flood Disaster Based on Projection Pursuit Technology

洪水灾情评价结果对救灾和援灾决策有重要指导意义。实际灾情评价中,单项指标的评价结果往往是不相容的,而多指标综合评价的重点在于模型指标权重的获取。将投影寻踪技术用于洪水灾情评价中,并将决策者的偏好添加到模型中,建立一个能在专家对某个(些)指标偏好干预下寻求客观权重的灾情综合评价模型,并研究模型的优化问题。结果表明,在多指标评价中,投影寻踪技术是一种能根据样本数据进行综合评价的客观方法,并能兼顾决策者对某个(些)指标的偏好。

From the authors＂ perspective, the decision on disaster relief, as to evaluating flood incompatible usually, and the key to multi-index result of flood disaster evaluation is ~mportant to the disasters, the evaluation results for a single index are comprehensive evaluation is to obtain the index weight values. Projection pursuit, a kind of exploratory data analysis method driven by sample data directly was used to evaluate flood disasters. The preference of decision-maker was considered in the model of projection pursuit. A comprehensive evaluation model for flood disaster was built, which can consider the preference of decision-maker for one or more indexes. The optimization of the projection pursuit model was studied. Case study shows that projection pursuit is an objective method for multi-index comprehensive evaluation, which is based on sample data themselves and can take decision maker＇ s preference for one or more indexes into consideration.