基于Matlab的电力系统中长期负荷预测及应用

Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting and Application Based on Matlab

在中长期负荷预测理论和方法的基础上,利用Matlab强大的数据处理能力和Visual C++的灵活性,通过混合编程开发了电力系统中长期负荷预测软件。该软件实现了几种典型的负荷预测方法,包含一元线性回归模型、抛物线模型、Logistic回归、移动平均算法、灰色系统预测模型等。将该软件应用到江苏电网的中长期负荷预测中,在分析影响负荷预测的相关因素的基础上,提出考虑相关因素的分类专用的年度和月度预测方法。

A power system medium and long term forecasting software is developed by combination program based on the theory and method of long term load forecasting, and the powerful data disposal ability of matlab and the flexibility of Visual C＋＋. The software realized several typical load forecasting methods including unary linear regression model,parabola model,logistic regression, moving average algorithm, gray system forecasting model and so on. The software has been applied in the long term forecasting of Jiangsu power grid. The special classified annual and monthly forecasting method considering relative factors is proposed based on the analysis of relative factors which influenced the load forecasting.