尾矿库溃坝灾害脆弱性评估指标体系及方法研究

Research on the dam-break hazard vulnerability assessment index system and methods of tailings pond

目前尾矿库风险评估的通用方法,是以尾矿坝边坡稳定安全系数作为衡量尾矿库溃坝灾害风险度的唯一指标。该方法忽视了尾矿库固有致灾强度的自然属性,以及尾矿库下游人口分布、社会经济发展水平和资源环境条件的差异,致使在荒无人烟的戈壁滩溃坝风险与在人口密集、经济高度发展的上海市溃坝的风险相同的不科学结论。基于脆弱性理论,在综合考虑尾矿库溃坝固有风险和承灾体内在脆弱性的基础上,运用层次分析方法,建立了尾矿库溃坝灾害脆弱性评估指标体系;基于损失率的承灾体风险损失评估方法,获得人口、财产和生态系统三类承灾体风险损失度,并建立了尾矿库溃坝灾害风险损失度评估方法。相关成果有助于进一步完善尾矿库溃坝灾害脆弱性风险评估技术和风险评估的可靠性。

The method,using slope buckling safety factor to measure the degree of dam-break hazard,results in the unscientific conclusions of identical dam-break risk with respect to the desolate uninhabited gobi desert and densely populated highly economic-developed city.On the basis of vulnerability theory,a dam-break hazard vulnerability assessment index system,which comprehensively considering the inherent risks of dam-break and the intrinsic vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies,was established.The production of dam-break hazard-causing factor intensity,including the current dam height,reservoir capacity downstream main ditch longitudinal,and accident probability by the Monte Carlo method is the inherent risk level of dam-break.The result by the multiplying physical exposure and the intrinsic vulnerability,including household fitness index the emergency self-help index,as well as the disaster relief capacity is the hazard-affected body vulnerability.Results are contributable to further consummate the vulnerability risk assessment technology and the reliability of dam-break hazard.