利用SLIM方法计算海上关井作业中人的可靠性

Calculation for human reliability in offshore shut-in operation by SLIM method

人的可靠性对于关井作业的成功实施至关重要。为了定量评价海上关井作业中人的可靠性,提出了导致海上关井人员失误的六个影响因素,包括两个环境因素和四个组织管理因素。以起下钻杆过程中的关井作业为例,通过对海上钻井专家进行问卷调查,求取了不同因素对各个关井步骤的影响权重。将六个影响因素的质量评级划分为A,B,C,D,E,F六个等级,在评级均为C的情况下,利用成功似然指数法求取了每个关井步骤中人的可靠性的平均值。为评价作业方的组织管理质量对人的可靠性的影响,将四个组织管理因素的评级提高到B级,结果表明关井成功率大幅提高,作业方的组织管理水平对于关井作业的成功实施至关重要。

Human reliability is crucial to the successful shut-in operation.To quantitatively assess human reliability in offshore shut-in operation,six influence factors which may cause human errors of offshore shut-in operators were proposed.These factors included two environmental factors and four organizational factors.Shut-in operation in tripping phase was taken as a case study.The weights of different influence factors in each shut-in step were calculated through questionnaire survey to offshore drilling experts.Ratings of the six influence factors were divided into six ranks.Under the premise that all influence factors were ranked C,the mean human reliability in each shut-in step was calculated.Meanwhile,to assess operator’s organizational and management quality to human reliability,the rating of the four organizational and management factors were improved to rank B.It showed results that success possibility of offshore shut-in operation will increase substantially.Operator’s organizational and management quality is crucial for successful shut-in operation.