灰色GM(1,1)模型在非采动沉降预测中的应用

The Application of Gray GM(1,1) Model in the Mining Subsidence Prediction

为了研究地表非采动沉降预测的规律,介绍了灰色预测理论模型的建模方法与模型精度评定方法,阐述了采用GM(1,1)等维新息模型进行沉降数据分析的特点,结合水文资料分析引起下沉的主要原因;并以某工程的沉降观测实例,证实了非采动沉降监测中采用灰色GM(1,1)预测方法的可行性。

In order to study the rule of the surface settlement forecasting, the method of modeling for grey forecasting theory and the evaluation of the model precision were intro- duced. Characteristics of analysis on the settlement data by using the equal-dimension and new-information model were also expounded. In combination with the hydrological data the main reason for the subsidence and with a project example of settlement observation is ana- lyzed, and the forecast results for the settlement by taking some practical example in the study are analyzed and verified.