广西41年干旱灾害的模糊综合评价与预测

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Prediction of Guangxi Drought Disasters in recent 41 Years

以广西1950年至1991年干旱灾害的旱情为数据,选取适当的评价指标,用信息熵确定客观权重、层次分析法确定主观权重,用最小信息熵原理确定组合权重,经过加权求和得出干旱灾害的模糊综合评价,进而对41个评价对象进行排序。同时,建立了基于改进的灰色GM(1,1)的时间响应式的灾变年份预测模型,为提高预测精度,对原始数据进行了7次方根变换,进行灾变年预测,准确率达80%。其结果能很好的检测预测模型,反映干旱灾害的实际情况,收到较好的效果。

Basing Guangxi drought disaster information from 1950-1991, using information entropy （AHP, the minimum information entropy principle） to determine the objective weight （subjective weight, combination weight） and weighted sum method, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and prediction was build to sorts 41 evaluation objects. The disastrous year prediction model based on improved gray GM （1, 1） time-response style was also established. Using the 7th root transformation of the raw data to improve the prediction accuracy, the disaster year forecast accuracy rate is 80%.