区域对外开放度与通货膨胀动态不一致性——基于动态面板GMM的实证研究

The Dynamic Inconsistency of Regional Openness and Inflation: On China′s Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

通过研究开放经济条件下通货膨胀的影响因素及其与对外开放度之间的动态不一致性,应用中国大陆29个省市及东部、中部、西部各地区所属省份的省际面板数据对通货膨胀率与对外开放度之间的非线性关系进行实证分析。结果表明,对外开放度特别是对外贸易量的增长能够有效地控制一国或者地区的通货膨胀率,且中国东部、中部和西部不同地区间显示出一定的差异性,对比发现对外开放政策对东部和中部地区宏观经济稳定性的调控效果最为显著。

Under the condition of open economy, this article investigates influence factors of inflation and the dynamic inconsistency between inflation and openness, and then applies China＇s provincial dynamic panel data and the method of GMM to make evaluations. The study shows that a nonlinear relationship ex- ists between openness and inflation. That is, the increase of trade openness can efficiently control the level of inflation in a country or a region. Furthermore, there is a degree of difference among east and mid-west area. By comparison, the result of central region is statistically significant, so the role of the reform and o- pening-up policy plays on the macroeconomy of east and central region is most effective.