人民币升值对出口商品价格传递效应的测度及其政策涵义——以中美贸易为例

Pass-through Effects of Appreciation of RMB on Exporting Prices and Its Policy Highlights: Taking Sino-US Trade for Example

以单位值指数构造方法为基础,选取五种商品分别构建五个不同行业商品的出口价格指数,经过协整检验、自回归分布滞后检验以及脉冲响应函数检验,结果发现:五种行业出口产品的价格指数在短期内均存在不完全的汇率传递效应;相对于其他行业来说,劳动密集型行业的汇率的短期出口价格效应更加明显;汇率传递的长期出口价格效应要高于短期出口价格效应。其政策涵义是,为规避人民币升值的负面效应,中国应该积极推动全球化过程中贸易自由化进程,做好劳动密集型行业的升级和优化,稳步推进人民币汇率形成机制和管理体制改革,宏观政策做到微观审慎监管和宏观审慎监管相结合。

This paper selects five kinds of goods to construct export price index by adopting co-integra- tion test, autoregressive distributed lag model and impulse test to test the effect of exchange rate. The em- pirical analysis shows that： Exporting price indexes of five industries have incomplete pass-througfi effects of exchange rate in the short run. Comparatively speaking, the short-run pass-through effects of labor-intensive industry are more evident; the long-run pass-through effects are higher than the short-run pass-through ones. In order to abase negative effects of appreciation of RMB, China should push forward the process of trade liberalization, upgrade the labor-intensive industry, continuously promote the mechanism and system reform of RMB, and combine micro-prudential policy with macro-prudential policy.