McKinnon互补性假说在中国成立吗?——基于1980—2010年数据的分析

Does McKinnon Complementarity Hypothesis Hold in China? Empirical Research of China from 1980—2010

通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用Johansen多变量协整和向量误差修正方法,利用中国1980—2010年的样本数据对McKinnon互补性假说进行实证检验。研究结果表明,McKin-non互补性假说在中国成立,即货币需求与资本形成为互补关系。其政策含义是:中国应继续大力推进金融改革特别是利率市场化改革;同时,采取各种有效措施提高实体经济的回报率,鼓励商业银行向中小企业贷款,以此促进企业的资本积累和经济的持续增长。

In this paper, empirical test is performed on McKinnon complementary hypothesis through analyzing the sample data of 1980 -2010, building Vector Autoregressive Model （VAR）, and using the Jo- hansen multivariate cointegration and vector error correction method （ VECM）. The results show that McKi- nnon complementarity hypothesis exists in China, that is, there is a complementary relationship between money demand and capital formation. The policy implies that China should continue to push forward finan- cial reform, especially interest rate system reform, to change the phenomenon of negative real interest rates. At the same time, China should take effective measures to raise the relative return rate of SMEs and encour- age commercial banks to issue loans to SMEs, so as to promote business capital accumulation and economic growth.