区域公共安全动态评价及关键变量甄别——基于“脆弱性—能力”的视角

Regional Public Security Dynamic Assessment and Key Variables Identification: From the Perspective of Vulnerability & Capacity

我国目前在借鉴和利用国外公共安全评价框架时还存在国际评价方法的标准化和本土化不足、评价工具相对滞后等突出问题。本文在以"脆弱性—能力"为视角的区域公共安全综合评价框架内,利用系统动力学建模工具,以S省为例进行区域公共安全动态评价以及关键政策变量甄别,寻求在研究视角上实现国际视野与国情社情更有效对接的同时,对传统打分排序式的线性评价进行突破,为提高决策者对公共安全复杂性的认知以及进行科学合理的政策设计提供依据。

Following the mankind entering the risk society, crises of various types are coming upon humans with unprecedented frequency and morphology. The time has come to be engaged in regional public security assessment. Facing research reality, however, there are some serious difficulties in the work of assessment. For instance, we lack international standardization and Chinese indigenization in assessment procedure, and we also lack advanced tools in achieving our demands. In the framework of regional public security comprehensive assessment based on the perspective of Vulnerability & Capacity, we have fulfilled the tasks of public security dynamic assessment on Shaanxi Province and key policy identification, by using the tool of System Dynamic Model. Improving assessment methods of linear scoring and ranking, and achieving effective combining of research perspectives between international visions and social situations in China, are the two main contributions of our work.