社会剥夺与肿瘤发病率、死亡率:基于1998～2007年中国肿瘤登记报告的研究

Socio-economic deprivation and cancer incidence and mortality:research based on Chinese cancer registry reports of 1998-2007

目的:分析社会剥夺对于地区肿瘤发病率、死亡率的影响。方法:选择与收入相关的变量以反映社会剥夺的地区差异,同时利用1998～2007年中国肿瘤登记年报的数据建立面板数据模型,并采用固定效应的方法对两者进行分析。结果:地区肿瘤发病率、死亡率与人均国内生产总值、可支配收入、消费之间均存在显著的倒U型非线性关系。结论:倒U型非线性关系的可能原因是各地区在经济发展过程中社会剥夺也日益严重,从而促进了肿瘤发病率、死亡率的提高,但随着经济的进一步发展这种情况有望得到改善。

Objective：To analyze the impact of socio-economic deprivation on cancer incidence and mortality of different districts covered by Chinese cancer registry. Methods：The income-based variables were used to reflect socio-economic deprivation.A panel data model was made according to the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Reports of 1998-2007,then the results were estimated with fixed-effect. Results：The relationship between cancer incidence,mortality and per capita gross domestic product,personal disposable income and expenditure were non-linear and reverted U-shape. Conclusions：The reverted U-shaped relationship could be the result of increasing socio-economic deprivation during economic development in most towns and cities,which promote cancer incidence and mortality.It is expected to change in the future,because further economic development may alleviate socio-economic deprivation and lower the incidence and mortality of cancer.